Introduction: Why I hated calculus but love statistics 

ix  
Acknowledgments 

xvii  


1  (14) 

2 Descriptive Statistics: Who was the best baseball player of all time? 


15  (21) 


34  (2) 

3 Deceptive Description: "He's got a great personality!" and other true but grossly misleading statements 


36  (22) 

4 Correlation: How does Netflix know what movies I like? 


58  (10) 


65  (3) 

5 Basic Probability: Don't buy the extended warranty on your $99 printer 


68  (27) 

5 1/2 The Monty Hall Problem 


90  (5) 

6 Problems with Probability: How overconfident math geeks nearly destroyed the global financial system 


95  (15) 

7 The Importance of Data: "Garbage in, garbage out" 


110  (17) 

8 The Central Limit Theorem: The Lebron James of statistics 


127  (16) 

9 Inference: Why my statistics professor thought I might have cheated 


143  (26) 


164  (5) 

10 Polling: How we know that 64 percent of Americans support the death penally (with a sampling error ± 3 percent) 


169  (16) 


183  (2) 

11 Regression Analysis: The miracle elixir 


185  (27) 


208  (4) 

12 Common Regression Mistakes: The mandatory warning label 


212  (13) 

13 Program Evaluation: Will going to Harvard change your life? 


225  (16) 
Conclusion: Five questions that statistics can help answer 

241  (16) 
Appendix: Statistical software 

257  (4) 
Notes 

261  (8) 
Index 

269  